Study on the Decoupling Effect of Energy and Carbon Emissions in the Yangtze River Economic Belt under the Dual Carbon Target

Abstract

To achieve the goal of "double carbon" is the only way for our country to achieve emission reduction strategy. The Yangtze River Economic Belt is one of the strategic support belts for emission reduction, so it is of great significance to study the decoupling effect of energy and carbon emissions. Based on the carbon emission data of the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 1995 to 2021, this paper firstly analyzes the basic characteristics and spatial pattern of carbon emission in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. Secondly, a spatial econometric model is constructed to decompose the main influencing factors of carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, and the main influencing factors of economic and energy decoupling in the Yangtze River Economic Belt are explored by using the canonical correlation analysis method. Finally, BP neural network is used to forecast and analyze the carbon emission of the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2022 to 2030. The results show that: (1) The center of gravity of carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Economic Belt is gradually shifting to the southeast, and there is a spatial correlation between regional carbon emissions. (2) The strong influencing factors of carbon emission in the Yangtze River Economic Belt are industrial composition and development differences; The influencing factors are city size and resource consumption intensity. The weak factor is the level of energy #consumption. The level of energy consumption and industrial composition are the main influencing factors of economic and energy decoupling in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. (3) Carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Economic Belt will continue to grow from 2022 to 2030, and will grow fastest from 2029 to 2030.