Abstract
Social unconventional emergencies not only bring disaster to human life and living environment, but also cause losses to the country and the people. What’s more, their occurrence tends to cause series of chain reactions and inspire lots of social problems, thus likely to break the social balance, and lead to national instability and social disharmony. In this paper, “concern degree model” is introduced in the research of the evolution law of social unconventional emergencies to find the intrinsic relationship between events and phenomena, which portrays the evolution mechanism of emergencies in a more scientific way. In the assessment study of the response capability of security precaution system, based on the latest approaches of system performance assessment, combined with the concept of concern degree, the response capability of security precaution system in social unconventional emergencies is scientifically assessed. The research provides a new idea in finding the evolution law of unconventional emergencies, and makes the assessment of response capability of security system more objective and scientific. Powerful support is provided in making emergency decisions in unconventional emergencies. A grey-prediction-based emergency resource allocation model is proposed according to the reality and problems of current research on emergency resource allocation and scheduling under unconventional social emergency. This model can be used to optimize the year’s total amounts of emergency resource requirements.
Published Version
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