Research on the evolution and influence mechanism of international liquefied natural gas import competition pattern

Abstract

With the continuous expansion of the scope and scale of liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade, global LNG import competition has become increasingly extensive and complex. However, there is currently a lack of research on the global LNG import competition pattern and its influence mechanism. This study first constructs a global LNG import competition network and uses the complex network method to analyse the global LNG import competition pattern and its evolution characteristics from 2000 to 2020. Then, an extended gravity model is established to explore the factors influencing the intensity of LNG import competition. The results show that the global LNG import competition becomes increasingly widespread and intense; the intensity of global LNG import competition is unevenly distributed and concentrated within Asia, within Europe, between Asia and Europe, and among a few large importers; large importers dominate the formation and evolution of the competition pattern; the position of Asian countries in the competition pattern has gradually improved, and the positions of European and American countries in the competition pattern have gradually declined, indicating that the centre of the competition pattern has gradually shifted to Asia; Japan has the most intense competition, but its position in the competition pattern has declined; and China has increasingly intense competition with other importers, and its position in the competition pattern has become increasingly important; The GDP and natural gas consumption of importers drive the competition intensity among importers, while the natural gas production, political risk, and technology level of importers and the distance between importers impede the competition intensity among importers. Finally, some policy recommendations are proposed to promote orderly and healthy competition in LNG.