Research on the Evolution and Driving Factors of the Economic Spatial Pattern of the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area in the Context of the COVID-19 Epidemic

Abstract

Understanding the economic impact of COVID-19 is the foundation for formulating targeted policies promoting economic recovery. This study uses panel data of the county economy in the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) from 2017 to 2022. Firstly, the evolution characteristics of the economic structure in the GBA were analyzed using the standard deviation ellipse, geographical concentration, and spatial autocorrelation methods. Then, we revealed the changes in various economic indicators. Finally, a spatial Durbin model was constructed to study the factors affecting economic growth and spatial spillover effects in different periods. The results reveal that the economic distribution in the GBA presents a “core–edge” structure. The FDI, consumption, and exports of the Greater Bay Area fluctuate greatly, while investment growth is relatively stable. There is a significant spatial spillover effect in the county economy of the GBA. Investment, consumption, exports, labor, and innovation all have significant positive effects on economic growth, with investment having the greatest impact, while FDI has a significant negative impact. The impact of COVID-19 on the economy of the GBA is mainly reflected in the weakening of spatial spillovers, the strengthening of economic agglomeration, the decline in factor growth, and the change in the driving effect of factors on the economy. These findings can provide a reference for formulating targeted economic development policies.