Research on strategy of purchasing electricity for large electricity consumers based on cvar

Abstract

In recent year, with the marketization reformation of electricity continuously and deeply perfecting, power market of consumer will be opening-up step-by-step. Large electricity consumers could purchase electricity in both long-term contract market, interruptible contract market and spot market. Also, they can choose to purchase electricity directly from self-supply power plant. Under such circumstances of power market, there are numerous choices for users. Meanwhile they would encounter many unpredicted factors, and it's easier to face the risk. To exclude the market risk, they can purchase electricity from combinations of long-term contract market and spot market. ect. We comprehensively consider the market risk in this article, at the same time, we count the maximal profit. Supposing that large electricity consumers only purchase electricity in contract marker, spot market, interruptible contract market and self-supply power plant, we choose conditional value-at-risk model (CVaR) to be tools of risk measurement. To achieve the goal of minimal CVaR of electricity-purchasing cost, we create the single objective strategy model of electricity purchasing for large electricity consumers with the risk minimizing. And then we can get the optimal strategy of purchasing electricity in different markets for large consumers. At last, the result of analysis that this model is fairly good to reflect the characteristic of market risk that large consumers meet. Also, it plays a good role for large electricity consumers with reference worthiness and guidance.