Abstract
Urban resilience in the context of COVID-19 epidemic refers to the ability of an urban system to resist, absorb, adapt and recover from danger in time to hedge its impact when confronted with external shocks such as epidemic, which is also a capability that must be strengthened for urban development in the context of normal epidemic. Based on the multi-dimensional perspective, entropy method and exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) are used to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of urban resilience of 281 cities of China from 2011 to 2018, and MGWR model is used to discuss the driving factors affecting the development of urban resilience. It is found that: (1) The urban resilience and sub-resilience show a continuous decline in time, with no obvious sign of convergence, while the spatial agglomeration effect shows an increasing trend year by year. (2) The spatial heterogeneity of urban resilience is significant, with obvious distribution characteristics of “high in east and low in west”. Urban resilience in the east, the central and the west are quite different in terms of development structure and spatial correlation. The eastern region is dominated by the “three-core driving mode”, and the urban resilience shows a significant positive spatial correlation; the central area is a “rectangular structure”, which is also spatially positively correlated; The western region is a “pyramid structure” with significant negative spatial correlation. (3) The spatial heterogeneity of the driving factors is significant, and they have different impact scales on the urban resilience development. The market capacity is the largest impact intensity, while the infrastructure investment is the least impact intensity. On this basis, this paper explores the ways to improve urban resilience in China from different aspects, such as market, technology, finance and government.
Highlights
Introduction iationsUrban resilience is the ability of a city to recover in the face of various disasters.Covid-19 is one of the most serious “black swan” outbreaks in global public health security in recent years
The evaluation scale of resilient cities can be divided into macro metropolitan area, medium single city and micro community. They are respectively represented by the Resilience Capacity Index (RCI) for metropolitan areas proposed by Berkeley Research
Based on the panel data of 281 cities in China from 2011 to 2018, the spatiotemporal differentiation characteristics of urban resilience in China are analyzed, and the driving mechanism of urban resilience is analyzed by using Multi-Scale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR) model
Summary
The term “resilience” first appeared in the field of mechanics to describe the ability of metals to recover after being deformed under external forces [3]. In a sense, engineering resilience is the closest to the concept of resilience commonly understood by people It refers to the ability of the whole system to recover to the equilibrium or stable state before disturbance after being disturbed [7]. Ecological resilience breaks the limitation that engineering resilience holds that the system has a single equilibrium state, and emphasizes the sustainable development ability of the system [7]. On this basis, based on the adaptive cycle theory of Gunderson and Holling [8], the concept of evolutionary resilience was proposed, which pays more attention to the adaptability, learning and innovation ability of the system. Compared with the fail-safe concept emphasized in the early stage of sustainable development, urban resilience focuses on the integrity of the overall urban pattern and the sustainability of functional operation and is a safe-to-fail approach [9]
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