Research on space-based kinetic impactor disrupting small-sized asteroids under short warning time conditions

Abstract

Near Earth asteroids with diameters less than 50 m possess distinct characteristics including a large population, a high likelihood of Earth impact, and limited warning time. While small asteroid impacts may not induce global disasters, they can still result in localized hazard. This study focuses on investigating the feasibility and strategies for disrupting small-sized asteroid structures through kinetic impact under short-term warning scenarios. Initially, a dataset comprising ten asteroids ranging from 20 m to 50 m in diameter is compiled by correcting their orbital parameters to simulate potential impacts on Earth. Subsequently, a space-based interception constellation is designed and deployed at the L3, L4, and L5 points of the Cislunar space. The study further examines the trajectory design methodology for achieving rapid interception of asteroids, enabling timely response within a warning period of 7 to 14 days. Additionally, the paper discusses the feasibility of impactors in disrupting asteroids through analytical models and Adaptive Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (ASPH) numerical simulation method. Lastly, the defense capability of the space-based interception constellation against Earth-impacting asteroids approaching from various directions is assessed. The simulations show that C and S-type asteroids below 40 m can be effectively fragmented using an impactor with an initial mass of 2 tons within the specified 7 to 14-day warning time. Furthermore, the deployment of impactors at L3, L4, and L5 allows for comprehensive coverage of asteroids approaching from diverse directions.