Research on Short-Term Traffic Flow Combination Prediction Based on CEEMDAN and Machine Learning

Abstract

Traffic flow has the characteristics of randomness, complexity, and nonlinearity, which brings great difficulty to the prediction of short-term traffic flow. Based on considering the advantages and disadvantages of various prediction models, this paper proposes a short-term traffic flow prediction model based on complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN) and machine learning. Firstly, CEEMDAN is used to decompose the original traffic flow time series to obtain multiple component sequences with huge complexity differences. In order to measure the complexity of each component sequence, the permutation entropy of each component sequence is calculated. According to the permutation entropy, the component sequence is divided into three types: high-frequency components, intermediate-frequency components, and low-frequency components. Secondly, according to the different volatility of the three types of components, the high-frequency components, intermediate-frequency components, and low-frequency components are predicted by long short-term memory (LSTM), support vector machine (SVM), and k-nearest neighbor (KNN), respectively. Finally, the accurate traffic flow prediction value can be obtained by the linear superposition of the prediction results of the three component prediction models. Through a measured traffic flow data, the combined model proposed in this paper is compared to the binary gray wolf algorithm–long short-term memory (BGWO-LSTM) model, the improved gray wolf algorithm–support vector machine (IGWO-SVM) model, and the KNN model. The mean square error (MSE) of the combined model is less than that of the BGWO-LSTM model, the IGWO-SVM model, and the KNN model by 41.26, 44.98, and 57.69, respectively. The mean absolute error (MAE) of the combined model is less than that of the BGWO-LSTM model, the IGWO-SVM model, and the KNN model by 2.33, 2.44, and 2.70, respectively. The root mean square error (RMSE) of the combined model is less than that of the BGWO-LSTM model, the IGWO-SVM model, and the KNN model by 2.89, 3.11, and 3.80, respectively. The three error indexes of the combined model are far smaller than those of the other single models. At the same time, the decision coefficient (R2) of the combined model is also closer to 1 compared to the other models, indicating that the prediction result of the combined model is the closest to the actual traffic flow.