Research on scenario construction and dynamic deduction model of major hazardous chemicals disaster based on stochastic petri net

Abstract

Major hazardous chemical accidents have unconventional characteristics such as sudden destruction, complexity of evolution, and unpredictability. The traditional ‘prediction response’ decision-making model is difficult to effectively deal with, so it is urgent to change to the ‘scenario response’ emergency mode. Based on the theory of scenario analysis and structural description, this paper constructs the scenario of the evolution process of hazardous chemical accidents from the logical structure dimension of ‘scenario state(s)-element attribute(I)-emergency response (R)’, and analyzes the dynamic causal relationship among the scenario elements. Secondly, based on the scenario construction, random Petri net are used according to the isomorphic relationship between stochastic Petri net and Markov chain, the stochastic Petri net model and equivalent Markov chain model of hazardous chemical disaster scenario evolution are constructed, and the stable state probability of the system is calculated. Finally, taking Qingdao ‘11·22’ oil pipeline leakage and explosion accident as an example, Markov chain and its related mathematical methods are used to carry out the case. This paper studies the development and evolution trend of hazardous chemical disasters and accidents, and analyzes the evolution and variation rules, so as to provide scientific support for the scenario response emergency decision-making of major hazardous chemical disasters.