Abstract
In recent years, the hydropower unit is developing towards high power, and large-scale, which increases the adjustment difficulty of the turbine regulation system. In addition, the turbine regulation system itself is a complex nonlinear system. The risk of system operation and risk assessment has become more complicated. This paper proposes a method to evaluate the operational safety risk of Turbine Regulation System by combining Markov State Model and Entropy Weight Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method. Firstly, the full-state operation model of the turbine regulation system is established. The Markov model is used to calculate the probability of fault occurrence. Secondly, the Entropy Weight Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method is introduced to evaluate the severity of the fault. Finally, a risk assessment system is established based on the probability of failure and the severity of the failure.
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