Abstract
Research on reliability analysis of emergency logistics system is a complex problem. In order to calculate the emergency logistics system reliability, Firstly, the factors about the emergency logistics system are analyzed and the structure of evaluation index system is established. At the same time, considering the fuzziness and uncertainty of evaluation indexes, and using semantic variable and information transformation formula, the fuzzy description language is converted into determined probability. Thus, taking advantage of Bayes in solving the problem of uncertainty, and combined with the fuzzy set theory, a reliability evaluation model, which is about a certain emergency logistics system based on fuzzy Bayesian, is established. The reliability and posterior probability of basic events are calculated by using Bayesian inference and Matlab toolbox. The important degree relative to the system of each basic event is also calculated with the conditional probability. So the vulnerabilities of emergency system can be determined. On this basis, the improvement measures are given to enhance the reliability of the emergency logistics system.
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