Abstract

The reliability analysis of urban rail transit system is a complex problem. Firstly, the influenced factors are analyzed and the structure of evaluation index is built. Besides, the fuzzy description language is converted into determined probability by using the fuzzy theory. Then, taking advantage of Bayesian in solving the uncertain problem, the reliability analysis model is established and the reliability and posterior probability of basic events are calculated by using Bayesian inference and Matlab. The important degree of each basic event is calculated based on conditional probability. So the weakness of system can be obtained to guide the practice better.

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