Research on Problems and Countermeasures of Road Safety Development under the Trend of Population Change

Abstract

By analyzing China's road traffic safety problems and development trends from 2004 to 2018 under the population change, this paper explores the impact of various population factors on the number of casualties in traffic accidents in China, and puts forward targeted prevention and management measures for the development direction of China under the new situation. Starting from the population factors of the number of floating population, population density, natural population growth rate, and urbanization rate, this paper collects panel data of traffic accidents of China from 2004 to 2018, and estimates the parameters using fixed effect model. Time effect variables are added based on traditional panel data, and a fixed-effect model is constructed to study the impact of road traffic accident deaths in China. The results show that from 2004 to 2018, China's population density and the number of deaths from road traffic accidents change in the opposite direction. The natural population growth rate and urbanization rate have positive changes with the death toll from road traffic accidents respectively. Therefore, this paper proposes appropriate preventive measures from traffic congestion, floating population management, traffic safety management, and other aspects to reduce road traffic accidents and property losses caused by demographic changes.