Research on Power Grid Investment Demand Forecast Based on Error Correction Model

Abstract

Grid investment demand forecasting for scientific use of grid construction funds has a positive effect, nowadays research scholars put forward in practice to explore the error correction model and cointegration theory as the core of demand forecasting model, From the perspective of practical operation, the analysis of demand forecasting, not only can reduce the cost of capital spending, can also provide effective basis for follow-up study. Therefore, based on the understanding of the current operation of power grid investment, this paper carries out ADF unit root test and co-integration test according to the statistical information of a certain region, and on the basis of gradually screening variables, defines the stable relationship between power grid investment and the maximum power load, so as to build a long-term equilibrium model. At the same time, according to the error correction model to get the short-term adjustment relationship model, so as to improve the accuracy of actual prediction. Finally, the empirical analysis shows that both the long-term equilibrium model and the short-term moderating relationship model have strong predictive ability.