Abstract
Accurate calculation of power grid investment scale is an important work of power grid management. It is very important to power grid efficient development. Due to the characteristics of short data time series, lots of influencing factors, and large change of power grid investment, it is very difficult to calculate grid investment accurately. Firstly, this paper uses hierarchical clustering analysis method to divide the 23 provinces into four classes with considering fifteen power grid influencing factors, then uses spearman’s rank-order correlation to find out five key influencing factors, and then establishes the regression relationship between the growth rate of investment scale and GDP, permanent population, total social electricity consumption, installed power capacity of operation area, maximum power load, and other growth rates by using the multiple linear regression method (MLR), and the estimation error is corrected by using RBF neural network. Finally, the validity of the model is verified by using data related to power grid investment. The calculation error indicates that the model is feasible and effective.
Highlights
Power Grid Corporation is responsible for guaranteeing the sustainable development of power grid and improving the reliability of power supply
In order to study the power grid investment forecasting models, previously popular forecasting models employed in other fields are worthy references for us; some classical
The results showed that gross domestic product (GDP), population (POP), social electricity consumption (SEC), electric installed capacity (EIC), and peak load (PL) are the main influencing factors of the electric grid investment (EGI)
Summary
Power Grid Corporation is responsible for guaranteeing the sustainable development of power grid and improving the reliability of power supply. The power grid investment needs satisfy transmission demand and network construction demand. The power grid investment has a lot of influencing factors and it is difficult to be forecasted. It is very important for optimizing planning and development work of Power Grid Corporation to know the investment scale. State Grid Corporation has invested more than CNY (China Yuan) 2770 billion on power grid capital construction from 2005 to 2015. While provincial corporations’ investments have vast difference, change from CNY 1.12 billion to 14.9 billion, investment average increasing rate changes form -1.2% to 19.38%. The second part of this paper is literature review, summarizing the existing research methods; the third part introduces the proposed method; the fourth part forecasts the provincial power grid corporations’ annual investments with the proposed method; the fifth part is the main conclusion and policy suggestion
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Free) 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call
