Abstract

The comprehensive consideration of the uncertainty and correlation factors in the power system is of great significance for the comprehensive evaluation of the optimal power flow. For the edge distribution of wind speed in wind fields, the non-parametric kernel density estimation method is adopted in this paper. For the wind speed combined distribution model of multiple wind fields, due to its own characteristics and the complexity of taking the correlation into account, the vine copula function was used in this paper to construct the model. Then, the three-point estimation method is used to generate independent random vectors in the standard normal space, and based on the combined distribution model, Rosenblatt inverse transformation is used to map the random vectors into correlated wind speed vectors. Finally, 2N+1 deterministic optimal power flow calculation is completed according to the interior point method, and the probability statistics information of each state quantity of power system is obtained. Taking the actual wind speed in a certain area as an example, the combined distribution model of multiple wind fields is constructed, and the probabilistic optimal power flow calculation is carried out in the power supply system containing multiple wind fields. The simulation results show that the method presented in this paper gives consideration to the accuracy and efficiency of the calculation.

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