Research on Method of Trajectory Prediction in Aircraft Flight Based on Aircraft Performance and Historical Track Data

Abstract

Traditional 4D trajectory prediction based on aircraft performance models and flight procedures does not consider control handover rules. Meanwhile, method based on historical data mining cannot accurately couple with real-time conditions such as weather and also cause computational efficiency problems. This project collected a large amount of historical data to form a control experience database and mined the historical database to obtain control experience and flight intention. On the basis of the traditional aircraft performance model, this paper puts forward the aircraft maneuver mode using strategy and introduces the high-altitude wind information from the weather information into the aircraft 4D model to optimize the aircraft 4D trajectory calculation model. By comparing the flight forecast time with the real crossing time, it is found that the average error of the improved 4D forecast crossing time is less than 5% of the flight time, which is obviously better than that before optimization. It is proved that the optimized method based on historical track data is effective and reliable, and the accuracy of 4D track prediction is improved greatly.