Abstract
Aircraft four dimensional (4D, including longitude, latitude, altitude and time) trajectory prediction is a key technology for existing automation systems and the basis for future trajectory-based operations. This paper firstly summarizes the background and significance of the trajectory prediction problems and then introduces the definition and basic process of trajectory prediction, including four modules: preparation, prediction, update, and output. In addition, the trajectory prediction methods are summarized into three types: the state estimation model, the Kinetic model, and the machine learning model, and in-depth analysis of various models is carried out. Further, the relevant databases required for the study are introduced, including the aircraft performance database, aircraft monitoring database, and meteorological database. Finally, challenges and future development directions of the current trajectory prediction problem are summarized.
Highlights
With the rapid economic development, the demand for air transport continues to grow rapidly, and the contradiction between aviation demand and airspace capacity has become increasingly prominent
It is predicted that in the 20 years, the annual growth rate of global air transportation will be about 4.4%, and the volume of air traffic in China will increase by 3.5 times [1], which brings major challenges to the development of the civil aviation industry
In order to continue to meet the different expectations of various stakeholders in terms of the comprehensive performance of operational efficiency, flight safety, cost-effectiveness, and environmental impact, many countries and organizations have initiated various types of air traffic system upgrade projects to cope with the ever-growing demand for air traffic, complex air traffic systems, and diverse operating environments [2]
Summary
With the rapid economic development, the demand for air transport continues to grow rapidly, and the contradiction between aviation demand and airspace capacity has become increasingly prominent. In order to continue to meet the different expectations of various stakeholders in terms of the comprehensive performance of operational efficiency, flight safety, cost-effectiveness, and environmental impact, many countries and organizations have initiated various types of air traffic system upgrade projects to cope with the ever-growing demand for air traffic, complex air traffic systems, and diverse operating environments [2]. Whether it is the current sector-based operation mode or the future trajectory-based operation mode, the prediction of the future trajectory of the aircraft is the key to the efficient operation of these two modes. Accurate trajectory prediction is the basis for decision-making systems such as arrival and departure sequencing, conflict detection, airspace situational awareness, and flight flow management, which can greatly reduce the uncertainty of an aircraft’s future flight and improve the predictability of air traffic [3,4]
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