Research on Influencing Factors of Traffic Conflicts in Freeway Diverging Area during the Maintenance Period

Abstract

Based on the traffic conflict techniques, a microscopic safety analysis framework is presented to study traffic conflicts in the freeway exit ramp diverging area (FERDA) during the maintenance period. A manual–software combination data processing approach was used to extract trajectory data from aerial videos and identify actual conflicts. Simulation conflicts were obtained from the VISSIM simulation model. Firstly, the conflict features of maintenance and normal operation periods were compared. Subsequently, conflicts were classified as lane-change conflicts or rear-end conflicts to investigate their spatiotemporal characteristics during the maintenance period. Finally, a random parameters multinomial logit model was developed to study the influencing factors and heterogeneity of conflicts. The results revealed that the FERDA has a higher collision risk during the maintenance period compared with the normal operation period. Additionally, lane-change conflicts have a higher occurrence probability than rear-end conflicts, but a shorter duration. Besides, the conflict density heat map showed that the lane-change conflicts and rear-end conflicts are densely distributed at 0–150 m and the middle lane of the FERDA, respectively. The model results indicated that the factors that significantly influence conflicts include velocity, acceleration, type, position, and destination of vehicle, the heavy vehicle percentage, total number of vehicles in the FERDA, and the velocity and destination difference between vehicles. Among these factors, the type of vehicle, destination difference, and the position of vehicles (at 150–270 m of the FERDA) were found that have significantly heterogeneous impacts on the two types of conflicts. This study is expected to provide safety analysts with an effective analysis method for evaluating the risk of the FERDA during the maintenance period. Additionally, the concluded influencing factors can potentially help develop different and effective safety countermeasures for different types of conflicts.