Research on Emergency Decision Making Based on Bayesian Method

Abstract

In today’s society, the sudden nature of emergencies, many inducements, and large impact determine the difficulty of emergency management and decision-making. How to minimize losses and ensure the safety of people’s lives and property after an emergency occurs is the top priority of the country’s emergency management work today. Bayesian decision-making method is a common method for program selection: use Bayesian formula to modify the prior probability, and then use the modified probability to calculate the expected value of each program’s utility. The plan with the higher expected value of utility is the best. Based on previous research results, this paper introduces the application background of original emergencies and the Bayesian decision-making method with fuzzy intervals, and uses specific cases to verify the effectiveness and rationality of the decision-making method.