An Emergency Decision-Making Method for Urban Rainstorm Water-Logging: A China Study

Jiyong Ding,Guangxiang Guo,Juefang Cai,Chen Chen

doi:10.3390/su10103453

Jiyong Ding, Guangxiang Guo + Show 2 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.3390/su10103453

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Abstract

With the rapid development of the urbanization process, rainstorm water-logging events occur more frequently in big cities in China, which causes great impact on urban traffic safety and brings about severe economic losses. Water-logging has become a hot issue of widespread concern in China. As one kind of natural disasters and emergencies, rainstorm water-logging has the uncertainties of occurrence, development, and evolution. Thus, the emergency decision-making in rainstorm water-logging should be carried out in stages according to its development trend, which is very complicated. In this paper, an emergency decision-making method was proposed for urban water-logging with a hybrid use of dynamic network game technology, Bayesian analysis, and multi-attribute utility theory. The dynamic game process between “rainstorm water-logging” and “decision-making group” was established and the dynamic generation of emergency schemes was analyzed based on Bayesian analysis in various stages of water-logging. In terms of decision-making attributes, this paper mainly considered two goals, i.e., ensuring smooth traffic and controlling emergency cost. The multi-attribute utility theory was used to select the final scheme. An example analysis in Guangzhou of China showed that the method is more targeted and can achieve emergency management objectives more effectively when compared with traditional methods. Therefore, it can provide reference for the scientific decision-making of emergency management in urban rainstorm water-logging.

Highlights

Due to the rapid development of the urbanization process, there have been frequent incidents of rainstorm water-logging around the world [1]
This paper focuses on the emergency emergency management of rainstorm water-logging
We have employed three major approaches, i.e., Dynamic Game Process Model, Bayesian Analysis, and Multi-Attribute Utility Theory to analyze the issue of urban water-logging as a multi-stage evolution process when considering the case of Guangzhou city

Summary

Introduction

Due to the rapid development of the urbanization process, there have been frequent incidents of rainstorm water-logging around the world [1]. According to the data released by relevant UN departments, floods account for the first or second place in all disasters whether considering the number of people affected, the number of deaths, or the economic losses [2] especially in developing countries such as Bangladesh, India, Nepal, etc. China is one of the countries most affected by floods in the world [4]. The metropolises such as Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shanghai have frequently been flooded during the summer rains in recent years [5]. The loss of urban water-logging accounts for a considerable proportion of the total flood disaster losses in the country [7]. Frequent urban water-logging has severely restricted the stability of China’s urban society and economic development [8]

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