Research on Electricity Supply Forecasting Model and Application of China Adapting to Supply-Side Structural Reform

Abstract

Since 2012, China’s economy has entered a new normal of declining potential growth rate, mainly due to insufficient effective supply, structural imbalance and mismatch between supply and demand. In order to solve the structural problems of China’s economic development, since 2015, the government has made major theoretical innovations and decision-making arrangements for supply-side structural reform. Electric power industry is the key area and important support of supply-side structural reform. In order to simulate and forecast the electric power supply situation under the structural reform of supply side, this paper uses Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model to construct the energy processing conversion module, and optimizes the power generation module based on the principle of minimum cost. In this model, power generation capacity, electricity generation and carbon emission is calculated under both basic and active supply side structural reform scenarios. Under the active supply side structural reform scenario, the results show that China’s power generation capacity and electricity generation will reach 5949 GW and 16.1 billion MWh in 2050 respectively, and the proportion of clean energy for both power generation capacity and electricity generation increased significantly. China’s carbon dioxide emissions from energy combustion will peak in 2023, with a peak of about 9.87 billion tons.