Research on Combined Forecasting of Cooling Load Based on Advanced Cuckoo Search and Improved Particle Swarm Optimization

Abstract

This study aims to improve the real-time accuracy of cooling load forecasting for heating, ventilating and air-conditioning systems (HVAC). This article takes the cooling load in a study room in Qingdao, China, which has been put into use for the first time, as the research object, and establishes a TRNSYS simulation platform to obtain sufficient load data. After using the mean influence value (MIV) and Spearman correlation coefficient to screen the characteristic variables, a hybrid algorithm (CS-CPSO) based on cuckoo search (CS) and particle swarm optimization (PSO) is proposed. Firstly, the iterative extremum is introduced to PSO, secondly, mechanism of levy random flight to generate random new nest in CS is used to initialize PSO particles adaptively, Finally, the optimization algorithm is applied to optimize the back propagation (BP) and support vector regression (SVR) load training models (WBP, WSVR, RBP, RSVR) of the working day (W) and rest day (R), respectively. The maximum grey correlation coefficient is utilized to establish the both models (CS-CPSO-CW, CS-CPSO-CR) of the working day (W) and rest day (R) based on CS-CPSO. In this way, the forecasting results are optimized and then compared with the regression prediction method. The analysis shows that the accuracy of the optimized BP model and SVR model are improved and fully considering the differences, the accuracy of the cooling load prediction is effectively promoted by separately, optimal selection between the prediction values of advanced models (CS-CPSO-WBP, CS-CPSO-WSVR and CS-CPSO-RBP, CS-CPSO-RSVR) gives full play to each algorithm’s advantages and makes up for their shortcomings, and it greatly increases reliability and improves accuracy, which in turn provides the basis for the optimal plan, control, and operation of the HVAC.