RESEARCH ON CHAOTIC CHARACTERISTICS AND SHORT-TERM PREDICTION OF EN-ROUTE TRAFFIC FLOW USING ADS-B DATA

Abstract

The short-term traffic flow prediction can help to reduce flight delays and optimize resource allocation. Using chaos dynamics theory to analyze the chaotic characteristics of en-route traffic flow is the basis of short-term en-route traffic flow prediction and ensuring the orderly and smooth state of the en-route. This paper takes the time series of en-route traffic flow extracted from Automatic-Dependent Surveillance Broadcast (ADS-B) measured data as the research object, uses the improved C–C method to reconstruct the phase space, and uses the improved small data volume method to calculate the Lyapunov index to identify the chaos phenomenon of en-route traffic flow. In order to avoid the interference of chaos phenomenon on traffic prediction, the Wavelet Neural Network (WNN) model is established to predict the traffic flow at en-route points. The experimental shows that when the number of iterations is 10,000, the average accuracy of WNN prediction is 0.87173, and the average running time is 6.9335334[Formula: see text]s. According to the experimental results, it can be seen that the smaller number of iterations has more advantages in running time, which greatly reduces the overall running time. At the same time, it indicates that appropriately increasing or reducing the number of iterations in this experiment has little effect on the results.