Research of Three-Exponential Smoothing Method in Tunnel Displacement Prediction

Abstract

Prediction of tunnel surrounding rock displacement is a hot topic. To accurately predict the displacement of tunnel surrounding, we put forward three exponential smoothing method and describe its basic theory. Based on the measured displacement of a tunnel monitoring sections in Northwest area, compared with traditional regression analysis and grey model as GM (1, 1) to predict the displacement, the results show that the average error and variance about prediction of displacement using three exponential smoothing method is minimum. This method is suitable for the prediction of tunnel surrounding rock deformation and can be applied to practical engineering.