Research of the model for assessing the workload of passenger port infrastructure using decision-making models under uncertainty

Abstract

The current situation formed by the changeable influence of the external environment on the interaction of “sea passenger port — sea ferry/cruise company” systems has formulated new decision-making tasks under uncertainty to justify infrastructural changes. It is not enough for the managers of sea passenger ports and terminals to make decisions only on the basis of deterministic models. Probabilistic nature of the processes predetermines the need to form new models and methods to substantiate strategies for the sea passenger ports development. The problem field considered in the paper is topical because today due to such trends as increase in dimension of cruise and ferry vessels and changes in route networks it is necessary to solve the problem of development forecasting on the basis of scenario modeling. Modeling should be performed on the basis of new digital transport models, which take into account the peculiarities of marine ports and terminals infrastructure, and priority of berths. The digital model of “Passenger Port of St. Petersburg “Sea Façade”, developed by the author, is used in the paper and the necessity to single out separate states in the development of sea passenger ports is substantiated. The validity of singling out a set of boundary points, turning points of uncertainty of future development of a complex system of a sea passenger port or terminal, connected with the presence of bifurcation zones — “ramification” of possible ways of the port system evolution is proved. The proof of the proposed approach is presented by means of allocation of individual stages in the development of the sea passenger port of St. Petersburg. Based on the presented approach, a new model for the evolution and management of the sea passenger port system development is proposed. This model on a single assembly field reflects temporary changes in the development of the sea passenger port and analytical data on the increase or decrease in the number of berths. The presented set of transition points allows to determine the time model of the sea passenger port development. A new model of working with data for making decisions on modernization of sea passenger port infrastructure is offered. On the basis of modeling, taking into account different distribution laws (gamma distribution, Poisson distribution, normal distribution and others) the conditions for formation of the individual “fields of utility”, cones of preference and target functions are presented. For precise description of decision-making situation under uncertainty faced by the head of the sea passenger port, the choice of Savage criterion (S-criterion) is substantiated and mathematical model and criteria are given. A solution for formation of acceptable interval on the basis of Dataset utility field data on intensities of ferry and cruise lines work is given. On the basis of the experiment, the accuracy of the proposed decision-making model under uncertainty to justify the conditions on the need for modernization of infrastructure (modernization of berths) of the sea passenger port is substantiated. The presented model and results can be applied to other sea passenger ports and terminals, which determines the universality of the presented approach.