Research of Variants of Modernization of Transport Terminal Infrastructure Based on Stochastic Models

Abstract

Modern passenger ports and terminals (main transport hubs) require the development of new models and methods for effective work planning and accurate forecasting of infrastructure development today. Such key transport infrastructure point as development of sea passenger ports, their modernization, and changes in route cruise and ferry networks are especially relevant in conditions of passenger traffic recovery after gradual lifting of Covid-19 restrictions. In an effort to achieve pre-crisis levels of cruise ship and passenger traffic, it is necessary to incorporate stochastic processes into port management models. It is necessary to make an assessment not only based on the existing schedule of ship arrivals, but also to evaluate various options based on modeling with regard to probabilistic processes. In view of increase in size of cruise and ferry vessels, many ports face the task of modernization of berths. The Baltic Sea region was chosen as an object of research. The flow of cruise and ferry vessels of the sea passenger port "Passenger port St. Petersburg "Sea Facade" (St. Petersburg) was chosen as an object of research. As a result, of the research a new stochastic model was presented and the results were compared with known distribution laws. Based on the obtained data a reliable decision-making area on cruise lines intensity and the necessity of infrastructure modernization is defined. Then the obtained data are used for optimization experiments in the software environment AnyLogic for modeling the annual situation for the purpose of complex assessment of the seaport operation and making decisions on modernization of berths.