RESEARCH OF THE DYNAMICS OF RUSSIAN GDP IN THE CONDITIONS OF DIGITALIZATION OF THE ECONOMY

Abstract

In the course of the study, a nonlinear dependence of the GDP dynamics on the increase in freight turnover was revealed. A regression model has been developed that determines the value of GDP depending on the dynamics of freight turnover. It should be stated that in Russia there is a rather low level of application of digital innovations, in comparison with foreign companies in developed countries, and continues to remain at a low level.
 Purpose. A hypothesis was put forward and proved that using a mathematical model, it is possible to obtain a forecast of Russia’s GDP for the next year based on the use of both a linear regression model reflecting the dependence of the GDP value on the dynamics of freight turnover, and using the AI-model “perceptron”, which includes the aggregate data reflecting the development of the economy.
 Method or methodology of the work. The work used research methods such as: monographic, analytical, linear regression and nonlinear mathematical model, as well as analysis, study and generalization.
 Results. A developed AI model (artificial intelligence model) “Perceptron” is presented, designed to predict Russia’s GDP based on input parameters representing a set of data reflecting the development of the real sector of the Russian economy in 2011–2019, including the dynamics of freight turnover. The experience of using artificial intelligence systems for forecasting time series, including the RF GDP, is considered.
 Field of application of the results: economics, financial sphere, forecasting and planning of economic and financial activities, economic security