Research of least squares support vector regression based on differential evolution algorithm in short-term load forecasting model

Abstract

To improve the accuracy of short-term load forecasting, a differential evolution algorithm (DE) based least squares support vector regression (LSSVR) method is proposed in this paper. Through optimizing the regularization parameter and kernel parameter of the LSSVR by DE, a short-term load forecasting model which can take load affected factors such as meteorology, weather, and date types into account is built. The proposed LSSVR method is proved by implementing short-term load forecasting on the real historical data of Yangquan power system in China. The average forecasting error is less than 1.6%, which shows better accuracy and stability than the traditional LSSVR and Support vector regression. The result of implementation of short-term load forecasting demonstrates that the hybrid model can be used in the short-term forecasting of the power system more efficiently.