Reproductive phenology is a repeatable, heritable trait linked to the timing of other life-history events in a migratory marine predator.

Abstract

Population-level shifts in reproductive phenology in response to environmental change are common, but whether individual-level responses are modified by demographic and genetic factors remains less well understood. We used mixed models to quantify how reproductive timing varied across 1772 female southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) breeding at Marion Island in the Southern Ocean (1989-2019), and to identify the factors that correlate with phenological shifts within and between individuals. We found strong support for covariation in the timing of breeding arrival dates and the timing of the preceding moult. Breeding arrival dates were more repeatable at the individual level, as compared with the population level, even after accounting for individual traits (wean date as a pup, age and breeding experience) associated with phenological variability. Mother-daughter similarities in breeding phenology were also evident, indicating that additive genetic effects may contribute to between-individual variation in breeding phenology. Over 30 years, elephant seal phenology did not change towards earlier or later dates, and we found no correlation between annual fluctuations in phenology and indices of environmental variation. Our results show how maternal genetic (or non-genetic) effects, individual traits and linkages between cyclical life-history events can drive within- and between-individual variation in reproductive phenology.