Abstract
The known approaches to project management are typically based on the intuitive decisions by project managers, not on theoretical foundations, patterns and laws of project management. In order to solve this contradiction, it is necessary to conduct the generalization and develop applied aspects for using the Markov chains to represent and model the weakly structured project management systems. To construct the Markov chain, we used a modified system of project management, which is represented in the standard of project management and defines the scheme of interaction between project participants. A method for the transformation of this scheme into a homogeneous Markov chain with discrete states and time is developed. It is demonstrated that iteration solution of the system of equations of the Markov model makes it possible to construct a trajectory of development of virtual or actual project systems. We examined practical aspects in measuring the effectiveness of trajectory of project development by using the devised Markov model. An evaluation of results of changing the probability distribution of project states in the coordinates of probabilities of the system states by steps revealed a significant effect on the progress and efficiency of a project only in the case of variation of terms of cooperation within a project team.
Highlights
Scientific research into the field of project management is focused on studying the phenomena and essence, relations and patterns in the management of projects/programs/ portfolios (PPP) over their life cycles
Achieving useful results and value in projects is conducted through the creation of products that is inextricably linked to the practice of project implementation, which results in the formation of rational models, techniques, methods and mechanisms for project management [2]
We proposed a method for the transformation of a typical scheme in project management into a Markov chain
Summary
Scientific research into the field of project management is focused on studying the phenomena and essence, relations and patterns in the management of projects/programs/ portfolios (PPP) over their life cycles. Such a project activity is carried out within the social or organizational-technical systems with the attributes of uniqueness. That is why the transformation of projects towards proactive management through the use of models that reflect essential attributes of the examined system is relevant. Control processes needs of practice for information support of projects and the lack of acceptable models is possible by employing the Markov chains
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