Repeated seismic swarms near Paricutin volcano: precursors to the birth of a new monogenetic volcano in the Michoacán-Guanajuato volcanic field, México?

Abstract

The birth of a new monogenetic volcano is difficult to forecast with precision, both in space and time. Nevertheless, seismic activity can alert of the imminence of such an eruption because it usually occurs as small-magnitude earthquake swarms that can last for a few weeks to months prior to an eruption. These swarms are usually related to magma that becomes stalled in the Earth’s crust for variable periods of time before its eventual eruption at the surface. For several reasons, volcanic seismic swarms have rarely been recorded with seismometers before the birth of a new monogenetic volcano. Over the past 25 years, six distinct seismic swarms (in 1997, 1999, 2000, 2006, 2020, and 2021) were detected between Tancítaro and Paricutin volcanoes, in the southwestern part of México’s Michoacán-Guanajuato volcanic field. They are believed to represent repeated attempts of magma to reach the surface hinting that in this region magma might become stalled for some time, so as to not reach the surface in a single ascent event from its source in the mantle. To better understand the magma’s migration path through the crust, we re-located with greater precision some of these seismic swarms by using the same methodology and velocity model to the entire data set. Our results show that these swarms originated within a small area beneath the NE flank of Tancítaro at depths of between 15 and 8 km below sea level (bsl). Apparently, magma is trying to reach the surface within the same conduit network at these crustal depths, but stalls when reaching a depth of ~ 8 km bsl. It is crucial to study these swarms because they might be precursors to a new eruption in this part of the Michoacán-Guanajuato volcanic field. This monogenetic field has been very active, producing several dozen eruptions during the Holocene, the last two Jorullo (1759–1774) and Paricutin (1943–1952). Furthermore, the Tancítaro area displays one of the highest densities of Holocene volcanoes within the entire field, making it a probable candidate location for the birth of a future monogenetic volcano. For these reasons, a permanent seismic network should be installed as soon as possible.