Repeated Measurement of FIB-4 to Predict Long-Term Risk of HCC Development Up to 10 Years After SVR.

Abstract

It is unclear whether and how the long-term risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) will change in hepatitis C virus (HCV) infected patients who have reached sustained virologic response (SVR) with direct-acting antivirals (DAA). In this study, we assessed the long-term risk of HCC up to 10 years after SVR using fibrosis 4 score (FIB-4) and its dynamic changes. A total of 701 DAA-treated patients who achieved SVR between January 2012 to October 2020 were enrolled in the study. The FIB-4 score of each patient was measured at the date of SVR and each follow-up visit annually. Patients were followed until December 31, 2021, with the longest follow-up time being 9.82 years. Following SVR, 27 cases of HCC were observed. The annual incidence rate of HCC remained stable with no obvious downward trend. Patients with a FIB-4 >3.25 at baseline or anytime during follow-up were at a higher risk of developing HCC than those whose FIB-4 remained below 3.25. Patients with cirrhosis and patients with no cirrhosis but a FIB-4 >3.25 were at higher risk of developing HCC than patients with no cirrhosis and a FIB-4 ≦3.25. FIB-4 >3.25 measured at SVR or any time post-SVR was associated with HCC risks. The repeated measurement of FIB-4 revealed a better predictive ability of HCC risks than the simple measurement of FIB-4 at baseline. The additional stratification of patients by combining FIB-4 and cirrhosis leads to more accurately identifying high-risk patients. Surveillance of HCC is recommended for virologically cured patients with a FIB-4 >3.25 at SVR or anytime afterward and patients diagnosed with cirrhosis.