Reorientation of the Russian fuel and energy complex to new sales markets and changing export opportunities under sanctions pressure: challenges and prospects

Abstract

The article is devoted to the study of Russia's interaction with key partners in the energy sector after a new round of sanctions pressure from the United States and Western countries. The article hypothesizes that the stability of the Russian fuel and energy sector after the introduction of restrictive measures is associated with the substitution of energy exports to eastern markets. The purpose of the work is to assess the prospects for the development of the fuel and energy complex of the Russian Federation under the conditions of sanctions pressure. The author examines such aspects of the topic as: changes in the volume and directions of exports of Russian energy resources, measures taken by Russian companies and the state to circumvent sanctions. Special attention is paid to the analysis of Russia's trade relations with China and India, including the dynamics of oil and gas exports, the impact of secondary sanctions on the business of these countries, and the adaptation of financial mechanisms to continue cooperation. The problems related to the trade balance and the use of national currencies in mutual settlements are also considered. In this paper, the author analyzes Russia's interaction with key partners in the fuel and energy sector through the paradigm of neorealism in the international relations theory. The methodological basis of this work is a problem-chronological scientific approach. The author also applied other general scientific research methods, including induction and deduction, as well as logical construction based on trend extrapolation. The author concluded that Russia has successfully reoriented energy exports to the markets of China and India after a new round of sanctions pressure in 2022. Secondary US sanctions put pressure on Chinese and Indian companies, in connection with which states refuse to conduct some transactions, but this does not lead to a significant decrease in energy supplies from Russia. The development of trade relations with China and India contributes to the preservation of Russian budget revenues from the oil and gas sector. A special contribution of the author is the analysis of adaptation strategies used by Russia, China and India to circumvent sanctions restrictions. The impact of sanctions on financial mechanisms and the trade balance between these countries is also assessed. At the same time, a comprehensive analysis of current and prospective export directions of Russian energy resources in the context of sanctions pressure has been carried out.