Rental Market Risk and Radical Right Support

Abstract

A growing literature examines how economic threat affects support for anti-establishment parties. While most existing work focuses on transforming labor markets as a source of anxiety, we advance the literature by studying changes in urban development and rent price appreciation. Our analysis examines the case of Germany, the country with the highest share of rental housing in the European Union. Combining individual-level geo-referenced panel data with a longitudinal data set on the cost of rental housing at the postcode level, we demonstrate that rising local rent levels increase support for radical right parties among long-term residents with lower household incomes, in particular in urban areas. Our results suggest that urban development, not unlike labor market transformation, represents an important and so far neglected source of economic insecurity and social concern with important political implications.