Renewable Energy Generation in the Energy Balance: the Forecast until 2035

Abstract

This paper summarizes the arguments and counterarguments within the scientific discussion on developing national economic energy efficiency under optimizing renewable energy generations. This study aims to forecast renewable energy generation until 2035 under the current Ukrainian conditions. The relevance of this scientific issue is the urgency to combat the climate change consequences under economic development. A bibliometric analysis was conducted in the study frameworks to systemize the scientific treatises and indicate main research directions in energy investigation. The source of publications was the Scopus database. The VOSviewer software tools were applied to visualize the obtained results. In turn, to gain the research goal, the authors forecasted the primary energy generations from renewable sources using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. The study sample was the shares of primary energy from renewable sources in Ukraine. The data covers 1985-2019. The results of bibliometric analysis allowed identifying main directions in investigating the energy policy such as renewable energy development under climate change; bioenergy; reducing carbon emissions towards economic growth; energy security and policy; management in the energy sector; satisfaction of the energy demand and improving the energy conditions for consumers. In the empirical part of this study, the forecast findings showed the growing tendency in primary energy generation from renewable sources. However, the share of primary energy from renewable sources would increase by 1.16 times (3,62 %). Therefore, the authors concluded that the target of the Energy Strategy of Ukraine of 25 % the share of primary energy from renewable sources would not be gained until 2035. This study highlights the necessity to develop renewable energy in Ukraine. The obtained results could be the base for further investigations devoted to elaborating the energy policy towards developing energy efficiency and green development.