Renaissance of Modified Charlson Comorbidity Index in Prediction of Short- and Long-Term Survival After Liver Transplantation?

Abstract

BackgroundOrthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) is the standard of care for end-stage liver disease. The Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) was originally created to assess the survival rate of patients with chronic diseases, although it was modified and adopted in OLT recipients as CCI-OLT.Material/MethodsIn total of 248 consecutive liver transplant recipients with viral cirrhosis in 98 (39.5%) patients were included. CCI-OLT was calculated assigning a weight of 3 to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; weight of 2 to coronary artery disease, connective tissue disease, and renal insufficiency; and a weight of 1 to diabetes mellitus.ResultsCCI-OLT was significantly correlated with recipient age (p<0.001; R=0.333) and was a significant risk factor for early post-transplant mortality (p=0.004). The presence of diabetes mellitus significantly increased the odds of early mortality (p=0.010). The optimal cut-off for CCI-OLT in prediction of mortality during the first 90 days after transplantation was ≥1, with an AUROC of 0.780 (95% CI: 0.670–0.891; p<0.001). Increasing CCI-OLT was a significant risk factor for worse 5-year post-transplant survival (p=0.001), along with coronary artery disease (p=0.008) and diabetes mellitus (p=0.021). The optimal cut-off for prediction of 5-year mortality for CCI-OLT was ≥1, with the AUROC of 0.638 (95% CI: 0.544–0.733; p=0.004).ConclusionsCCI-OLT is a useful tool for measuring the effect of pretransplant comorbidities and to stratify the effect of risk on both short- and long-term outcomes after OLT. Recipient age and diabetes strongly affected short-term survival after OLT, and metabolic and vascular complications were the leading causes of death at 5 years after OLT.