Remote Sensing of Atmospheric and Ionospheric Signals Prior to the Mw 8.3 Illapel Earthquake, Chile 2015

Abstract

In the present study, a number of atmospheric and some ionospheric anomalies are analyzed, which were recorded prior to the Mw 8.3 Illapel earthquake of September 16, 2015. This very large earthquake occurred in Central Chile, close to the coast, as the result of thrust faulting on the interface between the Nazca Plate and South American continent. Using remotely sensed data extracted from NASA/Giovanni, NOAA/NCEP, and NOAA/NGDC, atmospheric and ionospheric anomalies were observed that co-registered 35–40 and 25–30 days prior to the main shock, respectively. With reference to long-term time series over the epicentral area, significant atmospheric anomalies were recorded for cloud cover, geopotential height, precipitation rates, surface air pressure, omega, stream function, and wind vectors—all in the time window of August 5–10, 2015, 35–40 days prior to the main shock. Anomalous TEC maps were recorded for the same time period. Satellite images indicate the formation of an unusual cyclone, presumably triggered by air turbulences and abnormal atmospheric conditions over the epicentral area, including strong vertical winds. Data from the Jicamarca radio observatory in Peru, more than 2000 km to the North, reveal anomalous ionospheric variations on August 15–20, 2015 with respect to international reference ionosphere thickness parameters and the altitude of the F layer. The observed anomalies are consistent with processes that occur at the ground-to-air interface due to the stress activation of peroxy defects in the hypocentral volume. The flow of positive hole charge carriers to the Earth surface expected to have led to massive air ionization, generating at first primarily positive airborne ions, then negative air ions plus ozone. Understanding the sequence of processes inside the Earth’s crust and at the ground-to-air interface provides information not previously available about the causal and temporal linkages between the various pre-earthquake phenomena and the future seismic event.