Abstract
The present paper investigates the relationship between the global radiative forcing (GRF) and global annual climatic variability. The relation between the GRF and global annual changes in the operational weather and climatic parameters is uncovered. There are several datasets which have been used to challenge this goal. The NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis dataset of several meteorological elements, such as air temperature, wind, surface pressure, outgoing long wave radiation, precipitation rate and geopotential height at level 500 hPa, etc. for the globe for the period (1948-2012), has been used. Furthermore, the GRF data for greenhouse gases through the period (1979-2010) has been used. Also, datasets of climatic indices NAO, SOI, El Nino 3.4 and SST during the period (1948-2012) have been used through this study. Time series analysis, anomaly and correlation coefficient technique methods have been used to analyze the datasets. The results reveal that there is an outstanding positive correlation coefficient (more than +0.80) between GRF and the global annual weather elements of surface air temperature, temperature and geopotential height at level 500 hPa, precipitation rate and sea surface temperature. CO2 has a significant correlation coefficient (+0.89) with the outcomes longwave radiation and sea surface temperature. There is a significant relationship between the global annual variability of weather and climatic elements and GHGs, global warming and climatic indices, NAO, SOI, El Nino 3.4 and SST.
Highlights
Worldwide, increasing attention is given to the present and the potential future impacts of climate change
Data used in the present section are annual mean of geopotential height at 500 hPa, global temperature, and solar index, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), SOI and El Nino 3.4
The results revealed that: 1) For CO2 and surface air temperature and 500 hPa level of temperature anomaly, it is clear that, all of these three parameters have a sharp increase with time through the period (1950-2012) and all of it becomes above its normal value after year 2000 up to 2012 as appears in the Figure 3(a)
Summary
Worldwide, increasing attention is given to the present and the potential future impacts of climate change. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts that it is very likely that extreme weather events will occur more frequently in the future [1]. Global warming is commonly referred to as an increase in the temperature of the lowest layers of Earth’s atmosphere [3]. Global warming has occurred in the distant past as the result of the natural influences, but the term is most often used to refer to the warming predicted to occur as a result of increased emissions of greenhouse gases. There are several scenarios of models for global warming in the future. It has an uncertainty factor [25] [26]
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