Statistical Connections between Large-Scale Climate Indices and Observed Mean and Extreme Temperatures in the US from 1948 to 2018

Abstract

In order to better understand the extent to which global climate variability is linked to the frequency and intensity of heat waves and overall changes in temperature throughout the United States (US), correlations between long-term monthly mean, minimum, and maximum temperatures throughout the contiguous US on the one hand and low-frequency variability of multiple climate indices (CIs) on the other hand are analyzed for the period from 1948 to 2018. The Pearson’s correlation coefficient is used to assess correlation strength, while leave-one-out cross-validation and a bootstrapping technique (p-value) are used to address potential serial and spurious correlations and assess the significance of each correlation. Three parameters defined the sliding windows over which surface temperature and CI values were averaged: window size, lag time between the temperature and CI windows, and the beginning month of the temperature window. A 60-month sliding window size and 0 lag time resulted in the highest correlations overall; beginning months were optimized on an individual site basis. High (r ≥ 0.60) and significant (p-value ≤ 0.05) correlations were identified. The Western Hemisphere Warm Pool (WHWP) and El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exhibited the strongest links to temperatures in the western US, tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures to temperatures in the central US, the WHWP to temperatures throughout much of the eastern US, and atmospheric patterns over the northern Atlantic to temperatures in the Northeast and Southeast. The final results were compared to results from previous studies focused on precipitation and coastal sea levels. Regional consistency was found regarding links between the northern Atlantic and overall weather and coastal sea levels in the Northeast and Southeast as well as on weather in the upper Midwest. Though the MJO and WHWP revealed dominant links with precipitation and temperature, respectively, throughout the West, ENSO revealed consistent links to sea levels and surface temperatures along the West Coast. These results help to focus future research on specific mechanisms of large-scale climate variability linked to US regional climate variability and prediction potential.