Abstract
Abstract This paper presents the development of a fracture-mechanics-based probability analysis that can be used to estimate the remaining life of a low-pressure turbine with an unstable fracture in the rotor disk keyway. The analysis focuses on the stability of crack growth of a semi-elliptical flaw in the rotor disk keyway. The crack stability is judged on the basis of linear elastic fracture mechanics. Then the Monte Carlo technique is introduced to deal with several random variables. Based on the evaluation results, the probability of failure of observed crack indications can be determined. The inspection interval could be justified.
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