Religious voters and the religious-secular cleavage since 1990

Abstract

ABSTRACTMost studies of electoral behaviour in New Zealand do not pay much attention to the religious-secular cleavage. While a few studies noted a religious-secular cleavage prior to the adoption of proportional representation, most have assumed that such a divide since 1996 has been confined to the margins of electoral politics, with religious voters supporting smaller third parties over National. This article re-evaluates this conclusion using data from the New Zealand Election Study since 1990. The analyses show that, rather than supporting small third parties more clearly representing issues of concern to them, religious voters have voted largely for National in most elections as part of a religious-secular cleavage between National and Labour. Fluctuation in support for National among religious voters is tied to National’s electoral fortunes: religious voters have been more likely to support National when the party has been likely to form the next government, but more likely to cast votes for third parties when National’s prospects have been poor.