Abstract
The requirement for transit reliability grows with the increase of pace of life since unstable bus arrivals can raise the anxiety of waiting passengers. This paper proposes a reliability assessment method to evaluate the reliability of each bus stop on the route and the reliability of bus routes. In reliability prediction, the prediction target is locked by rolling horizon to reduce the interference of other information. In addition, a prediction method of the reliability of further transit service using the accurate online support vector machine is proposed. This prediction can provide more accurate and stable data for the arrival of buses and reduce unnecessary waiting of passengers. Finally, the reliability prediction method proposed is tested with the real data of a bus route in Dalian, China. The results show that the accurate online support vector machine with reasonable parameters can predict the reliability of transit service accurately.
Highlights
Traffic congestion has been a common problem in large cities of the world
The purpose of this work is to enrich the study on the prediction of transit reliability, especially for noschedule bus routes and bus stops
In section ‘‘Accurate online support vector machine,’’ we present the principle of accurate online support vector machine (AOSVM), as well as the process of algorithm
Summary
Traffic congestion has been a common problem in large cities of the world. In order to effectively alleviate traffic congestion, the urban public transit system has been pushed into a very important position. In many large and medium-sized cities of China, the development of public transit is not effective because of the pressure and difficulty from the large numbers of citizens. In other words, reaching the destination within the expected time (i.e. the reliability of buses) is very important. In many large cities, it is common that there might be no timetable of buses at each bus stop because traffic conditions usually change quickly, which makes it hard for buses to follow timetables. Considering the actual condition of these timetablelacking buses, their reliability seems to be more important owing to the anxiety of waiting passengers without an approximate waiting time. Concentrating on the reliability of public transit is helpful to evaluate and further improve public transit service
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