Reliability of construction of nuclear power facilities in the global energy market

Pyotr Grigoryevich Grabovy,Sergey Aleksandrovich Baronin,Vitaly Viktorovich Berezka

doi:10.5377/nexo.v34i06.13184

Abstract

Purpose: development of conceptual provisions, methodical approaches and practical recommendations about modeling and integrated management at a pre-investment stage of nuclear power construction facilities in the international energy construction market. Materials and methods: a set of the interrelated methodological approaches based on the theory of complex systems life cycle, methods of abstraction, comparison, analysis, synthesis, opposition, modeling, forecasting, expert assessments, risk theory and others. The research is conducted with the use of open data resources of the International Energy Agency (IEA), International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), World Nuclear Association (WNA), Nuclear Energy Agency under OECD and ROSATOM State Corporation open statistical data. Results: Features of the modern global world market of nuclear power construction, as well as the role and place of Russia in it, are considered. A comprehensive review of the literature on the studied problems is accomplished. A methodology for modeling the organizational and economic reliability (OER) of complex systems is suggested. Modeling of the structural components of the life cycle (hereinafter LCi-j) of an investment project for the NPP construction on the international market in the conditions of high competition is proposed.

Highlights

A promising direction for the development of domestic nuclear energy companies is their participation in the international market for the construction of nuclear power plants
The analysis of the problems of organizational reliability of the implementation of NPP investment projects in the international NPP construction market according to the criterion of construction schedule delay showed that out of 52 NPP units under construction on 01.07.2020, 33 units or 63.5% were built with a delay of the previously accepted deadlines (Figure 3)
The performed study of the ORn by the criterion of whether there is a delay of the planned NPP power units commissioning dates on the basis of open data from the International Energy Agency (IEA), the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the World Nuclear Association (WNA), the OECD, showed that the divisions of the Rosatom Group are characterized by relatively high reliability of the previously planned construction schedules

Summary

Introduction

A promising direction for the development of domestic nuclear energy companies is their participation in the international market for the construction of nuclear power plants. The peculiarities of the global nuclear construction market include the formation of an ever-growing demand for NPP power units. According to the IEA forecast, by 2040, due to the growth of the consumption market by an average of 1.6 times, it is planned to increase the share of nuclear energy in global energy production to 12%, which corresponds to the volume of the input capacity of 624 GW NPP. The analysis of the features of the global NPP construction market has shown that the main problem of its development is the uncertainty of the completion of NPP projects, that is, the volume of commissioning of new capacities, as well as the beginning of new construction (IEA forecasts). It is proved that this indicator for the period from 2011 to 2020 is on average 50-60% lower than required in accordance with the developed SDS scenario

Methods

Results

Conclusion