Reliability modelling based on dependent two-stage virtual age processes

Abstract

This paper proposes reliability and maintenance models for systems suffering random shocks arriving according to a non-homogeneous Poisson process. The system degradation process include two stages: from the installation of a new system to an initial point of a defect (normal stage), and then from that point to failure (defective stage), following the delay time concept. By employing the virtual age method, the impact of external shocks on the system degradation process is characterized by random virtual age increment in the two stages, resulting in the corresponding two-stage virtual age process. When operating in the defective state, the system becomes more susceptible to fatigue and suffers from a greater aging rate. Replacement is carried out either on failure or on the detection of a defective state at periodic or opportunistic inspections. This paper evaluates system reliability performance and investigates the optimal opportunistic maintenance policy. A case study on a cooling system is given to verify the obtained results.