Reliability modelling and evaluating of wind turbine considering imperfect repair

Abstract

To model and evaluate the reliability of wind turbine (WT) under imperfect repair, an improved Log-linear Proportional Intensity Model (LPIM)-based method was proposed. Initially, using the three-parameter bounded intensity process (3-BIP) as the benchmark failure intensity function of LPIM, an imperfect repair effect-aware WT reliability description model was developed. Among them, the 3-BIP was used to describe the evolution process of the failure intensity in the stable operation stage with running time, while the LPIM reflected the repair effect. Second, the estimation problem for model parameters was transformed into a minimum solution problem for a nonlinear objective function, which was then solved using the Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm. The confidence interval of model parameters was finally estimated using the inverse Fisher information matrix method. Key reliability indices interval estimation based on the Delta method and point estimation was derived. The proposed method was applied to a wind farm’s WT failure truncation time. The proposed method has a higher goodness of fit based on verification and comparison. As a result, it can bring the evaluated reliability closer to engineering practice.