Reliability Evaluation of Distribution Networks Considering the Randomness of Wind Turbine Outputs

Abstract

With more and more distributed generators integrated into the distribution networks, the uncertain outputs of distributed generators make the reliability evaluations of distribution networks harder to be handled. However, the existing studies such as the analytical method and simulation method cannot take into account the accuracy and calculation efficiency at the same time in a real time operation. So this paper proposes a reliability evaluation method for distribution networks considering the randomness of WT outputs. Firstly, based on the probability level of the WT outputs in different scenarios by prediction error of wind speed, the island division method under multi-scenario conditions is proposed. Then, the reliability of the distribution network with WTs is evaluated by the improved minimal path method. Finally, numerical simulations on the IEEE-RBTS 6 bus system show the superiority of the proposed algorithm over existing methods.