Reliability-based optimization of imperfect preventive maintenance with Bayesian estimation

Abstract

In this study, we present a sequential imperfect preventive maintenance model for a component subject to degradation. We use an age reduction reliability model for scheduling preventive maintenance, which is performed whenever the component’s reliability falls below the reliability threshold level, R. The problem is considered under lack of data, in which the Bayesian methodology is more appropriate than the frequentist view for estimating the unknown parameters of the model. We assume a fixed duration for preventive maintenance, whereas the duration of corrective maintenance is an exponential random variable. We model the total expected cost over all cycles and find the optimal preventive maintenance plan until a replacement based on the reliability threshold value. We also conducted a numerical study for sensitivity analysis of the developed model.