Reliability Assessment of Urban Road Network System by GO Methodology

Abstract

The GO Methodology, which is a methodology of system reliability, is applied to the reliability analysis of urban road network system. According to the basic theory of GO Methodology, An urban road network system consists of traffic flow input system, path system and traffic flow output system. The GO operators which are similar to these systems are selected to draw the GO chart of urban road network system. Based on computation of the connectivity reliability and road blocking probability of each link (node), the reliability of the entire urban road network is obtained by the GO algorithm. practical application. GO methodology which is a success-oriented analytical technology of system probability is applicable for the reliability analysis of complex system. The analysis begins with the input of incidents. After the calculation through the GO model, the final probability can be obtained. The development of GO method stems from the decision-making tree theory. The basic idea of this theory is to directly transfer schematic diagram, flow chart or engineering drawing of the system into GO chart. According to the general analysis of GO method, the paper makes systematic analysis on urban road network, develops the GO chart corresponding to the urban road network system, carries out the GO operation and finally obtains the reliability result. The result provides theoretical basis for system evaluation which is significant for the improvement of system reliability. II. GO METHODOLOGY AND THE ANALYSIS PROCEDURE GO methodology is an analysis approach of system reliability based on the event tree theory. The event tree is developed by representing and analyzing every possible situation in the system gradually. GO methodology uses the same operator type to represent the similar situations of each component of the system to simplify the calculation model. The process of GO chart development uses GO operators represents specific components, and signal flow connects operators. The GO operators represent specific functions and the input and output signals have to obey the operation rules. After GO chart is developed, the GO model computation will be conducted according to the GO operators' rules. As a result, the reliability parameters of the system can be obtained.