Reliability Assessment for a Stochastic Air Transport Network with Multiple Demands

Abstract

Air transport networks play a significant role in the modern tourism industry, and their operational performance and stability can be measured by reliability analysis. This study, from the perspective of a travel agency, attempts to assess the reliability of a stochastic air transport network (SATN) by considering multiple passenger demands generated by both the starting airport and several connection airports. The SATN is modeled as a stochastic flow network comprised of several nodes and arcs where nodes represent airports, and arcs represent flights connecting two airports. Each flight is associated with a predetermined stochastic capacity following a specific probability distribution, departure time, arrival time, and discount fare. Accordingly, network reliability refers to the probability that the network can successfully transport passengers from their respective source airports to the destination airport within the given travel time and travel cost limit. An algorithm in terms of the concept of lower boundary point is developed to compute network reliability. Furthermore, a simple example and a case study are presented to demonstrate the proposed reliability method and the managerial implications of reliability for travel agencies.